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The number of vehicles of highway-legal light-duty vehicles in operation (VIO) in the US grew by 0.6% year-over-year, or by 1.6 million vehicles, to 284.4 million vehicles, at the end of the second quarter, according to Experian’s quarterly report today, based on registration data.
The net gain of 1.6 million vehicles in operation over the 12-month period is a result of:
According to the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration, 933,435 used vehicles were exported to other countries in the calendar year 2021, after the plunge in exports in 2020. In the data going back to 2008, the record was set in 2019, with exports of nearly 1 million used vehicles:
Mexico has become an auto-manufacturing powerhouse. Some of the vehicles are built for export to the US and other countries. Other vehicles – often lower-priced models with fewer features – are built for sale in Mexico. These new vehicles built in Mexico for Mexico are feeding the used vehicle market in Mexico.
US exports of used vehicles to Mexico have declined over the years, from their heyday in 2014 of 110,000 vehicles to 66,800 vehicles in 2021, now representing only 7% of total used vehicle exports (red line in the chart below).
Among the top 10 destination countries in 2021 for used vehicles exports by the US is Germany where muscle cars have a presence, but only a tiny one, compared to the huge market of the country. But other countries on the list have small used-vehicle markets – such as the Dominican Republic or Lithuania – and US exports play are larger role in their local markets:
These are the top 10 destination countries of US used vehicle exports in 2021, and how those exports fared in prior years.
The UAE (top black line) has been one of the dominant destinations for US used vehicles throughout those years. Oman (yellow line) came out of nowhere to turn into the seventh largest destination over the past five years:
Of the 284.4 vehicles in operation, 21.6% were GM vehicles by Q2, same as in the prior year. Ford’s share dipped to 16.3% (from 16.4% in the prior year). Toyota’s share rose to 14.6% (from 14.5% in the prior year).
Tesla, which started mass-producing vehicles only over the past few years, still doesn’t have enough vehicles on the road in the US to figure into this table with its own name plate and is included in “Other manufacturers.”
In terms of new vehicle sales, EVs are the one segment that is growing in leaps and bounds with huge percentage growth rates, even as sales of ICE vehicles have declined.
In California, where Teslas are made, EV sales made up 15% of total new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2022, up from a 9.5% share in 2021 and a 6.2% share in 2020.
And now that Teslas are made in Texas as well, it will be interesting to see how sales are going there.
But EVs are a recent development. In total, there are only 1.8 million EVs on the road, for a still minuscule share of 0.63% of the 284.4 million vehicles in operation. It will take many years of massive sales growth before EVs make up a significant portion of the total fleet on the road.
Of the 284.4 million vehicles in operation, full-size pickups alone had the largest share of 16.3%, followed by mid-size cars – the mainstay of rental fleets – with a share of 14.1%. Overall, of all VIO:
Of the VIO with internal combustion engines:
The average age of all cars and light trucks in operation in 2022 rose to a new record of 12.2 years, according to separate data, which I discussed in May when it came out.
Total miles driven, according the Federal Highway Administration, was up just a tad from 2019 levels, following the plunge in 2020 and the subsequent recovery. This includes all motor vehicle traffic, including commercial trucks and delivery vehicles. The chart shows the 12-month moving average to eliminate the large seasonal variations.
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I’m going to do my part to reduce these figures by 1. My car went to the shop for routine maintenance and prices there have doubled. Along with the prices of everything else doubling- if unable to double my income this year, I’m cutting way back.
Great time to learn to do your own “routine maintenance”
Agrees. And many public libraries stock diy manuals.
You might not be able to do all repairs, but many of them.
Youtube and dedicated websites are great resources, especially if you have a car beloved by enthusiasts.
I wouldnt rely on youtube for a novice, many , many bad advice vids …50% garbage imo
Doing my own maintenance on cars is actually more expensive because my hourly pay is higher than what the shop charges. Right now I just value my financial goals above keeping a car that is becoming a bigger liability due to inflation.
Also, I have found that walking/biking/skating is a terrific alternative to driving. And guess what the average speed in a car is around my town anyway – 20 MPH after you factor in traffic jams and stops. So skating or biking at 10-15 MPH isn’t really that much slower to save a lot of $ and get a great workout. Also, I found that there’s maybe once or twice a month I still have a trip that can’t do with human power, no prob – I use a taxi/rideshare. Taxi a few times a month is much cheaper than paying upkeep on my own car.
HOWEVER I don’t expect frugality to save me or anyone else from the crooked corrupt people running the govt and the unconstitutional FED. END THE FED before the kills us all.
I have to think many people are cutting back spending because of the inflation. I’m not anywhere near poor, because I like to save. I’m doing my own haircuts now, saving $500 a year or so, and saving time as well. We’ve cut way back on any unhealthy treats we used to buy. Bags of chips lost half 30% of the volume but went up 50% in price. Ridiculous. When grocery shopping, we look a lot harder for stuff that is cheaper or on sale. We cut our restaurant dining by more than 50% and enjoy eating healthier food at home. We haven’t done any air travel vacations for two years and don’t miss it. We’re vacationing just as much but to driving vacations in the region. We don’t miss the airports. We also quit the gym membership during the pandemic and never went back. We get along fine with outdoor aerobic exercise and dumbbells at home. We also scaled back clothing purchases and home furnishings.
We’re driving vehicles that are at least 8 years old, but we have no intention of updating those at today’s runaway prices for new and used vehicles. We’ll run what we have to the ground.
Such budget tightening isn’t showing in the macro statistics yet, so I assume other people don’t care about inflation and are spending like there’s no tomorrow. It’s a mixed economy, with record income and wealth inequality.
You’re not alone. Lots of us out here driving our cars as long as possible and watching every penny.
I cook almost all of our meals for a fraction of eating out. I buy in bulk and package meats with a chamber vacuum packer and freeze.
I can prepare a steakhouse quality dinner for significantly less than ordering pizza. Of course, it helps to know how to COOK.
While I’m at it, I put fifteen cents worth of lemon ammonia in a spray bottle and fill the rest with dihydrogen monoxide. “All purpose cleaner” to clean as I go.
A lot of us realized during the pandemic just how unthinkingly gluttonous we had been living. Gas prices may be receding, but I’m now in the habit of burning the least possible, no matter what the price.
The number of vehicles on the road almost matches the U.S. population. I know many people own more than one ride, but it looks good to say “America, a car for every citizen!”
I had to RTGDFA to realize that your chart abbreviation was “Other Manufacturers” and not “Other MFers”. I like other MFers better personally… Tesla may fit that group description well depending on who you ask.
Ok,somebody needs to step up and snatch the EV bait that Wolf dangled in the article and run with it. I need some entertainment.
A recent (6 Sept) article in the Daily Mail runs with the headline “Your car could soon run on THIN AIR” by electrolyzing ambient humidity into hydrogen, which would appear to be promising tech if civilization somehow manages to survive the coming collapse.
The article provides a detailed explanation of the operation of this tech as well as that of the H₂-powered Toyota Mirai. Similar articles elsewhere indicate that the larger mfrs are seriously looking to skip EVs and go straight to H₂, avoiding numerous problems in addition to making TSLA a massive future short opportunity, which won’t be a problem for Elon because he’s headed towards Mars and won’t be coming back.
The Bentley, nearly 70 years old now, runs on H₂ generated with 19th-century electrolytic methods, excepting the solar panels. Other than the price of Windex and some neatsfoot oil I can’t remember the last time it cost anything to run it, but I’d have to ask my chauffeuse about that to be sure, and no, she does not want to talk to you.
Electric cars are 0.63%, at what % do electric cars take the grid down?
“In terms of new vehicle sales, EVs are the one segment that is growing in leaps and bounds with huge percentage growth rates, even as sales of ICE vehicles have declined.”
The government is pushing this way too hard and fast. I don’t mind a reasoned approach, but this is anything but. And giving all of these incentives and credits to these wealthy corps was just filthy.
I happen to believe hybrids hold more promise long term. I still haven’t seen any heavy duty EV that can haul 35,000 lbs like the new diesel trucks. It seems they just want to get rid of that market segment or something, yet that’s what does the work.
I hate the EV incentives. They’re stupid. Right now, there is so much demand for EVs that there are huge waiting lists, and prices are getting hiked because there is this demand that far exceeds production capacity. This is the worst possible time to throw incentives at this segment. EVs don’t need it. They’ll do just fine without it. I have railed against it before, but it doesn’t help. Those incentives will just fatten the profit margins of the automakers.
If you want to encourage production in the US, slap on big tariffs on imports, that’ll do the job. Don’t subsidize production in the US and handing out cash or tax rebates.
It seems like we can always count on the government making the biggest mess possible. I forget where I saw it, but there was an article saying that a certain model EV automatically raised their price to capture the entire tax credit, so the buyer got nothing. Or maybe it was a dealer. I forget. But end result was the same.
Both GM and Ford recently announced price increases for their EV’s that covered the potential tax credit available for buyers under the new government program.
“I hate the EV incentives. They’re stupid.”
They’re not actually necessary except for political posturing and overfeeding of corporations, but be that as it may. Technical battery improvements have advanced about as far as the inherent redox limitations allow, which aren’t at all sufficient, but fortunately other technologies aren’t subject to these limitations and can be expected to make EVs obsolete in short order.
Sacramento hit 116 °F on Tuesday, but there still seem to be no serious discussions of putting an air-conditioned dome over it. Until that happens I recommend thinking cool thoughts.
Construction crews are hard at work building a new, and large, soybean crush plant in Casselton, North Dakota. It will turn soybean oil into biodiesel as a big part of it’s operations when up and running.
The recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” includes an extension of the $1 a gallon biodiesel tax credit from 2022 to 2024.
The Act also has a small token of $100 million dollars for gas stations. If you own a gas station, and want to add or expand your retail bio-fuels options, to sell what comes out of the crush plant to your customers, Uncle Sam will split the cost of investment that you spend 50% –50%.
The huge jump in miles driven starting in 2014 is puzzling. Any insights?
The economy was coming out of the Great Recession, so more jobs and economic activity.
Part of it was the recovery from the drop during the Great Recession, back to trend.
Yeah. If you draw an imaginary line across that dip, it would seem to support that.
I think the better question is why the fall off in miles driven between 2007 and 2017?
JG-airline passenger miles correlation, mebbe…, ‘home entertainment’ sophistication coupled with GFC financial effects, mebbe…
may we all find a better day.
I suppose that the 300,000+ miles on my 1994 Camry are significantly contributing to your Average Age of Car chart…
1stCav, Yves; My litmus test is this. Has the vehicle had its valve cover (or cam cover) removed on its journey to high mileage? You can keep anything running if you want to.
Ha! Engine was changed twice (with 60-70k Japanese engines), the second time purely of my own fault…
My father just turned 300k yesterday on his 1997 Camry – original everything it’s a V6 and he barely does maintenance . They don’t make them like they used to
Yves-dammit, just when i thought my ’02 Camry @257K made me one of the ‘in crowd’…
may we all find a better day.
We had a 1999 4 cylinder, auto transmission Camry that our two daughters shared (and beat on it) during college years. I did two timing belt jobs on it and a ton of oil changes over the years. Some other maintenance like an alternator replacement, tires, brakes, ball joints and tie rod ends kept it alive.
Great car and we sold it for $2 K with 300,000+ on it, faded brown paint and still functioning A/C. I still have a few new oil filters in the garage that were for it.
I’m personally in the market for something in the 30-40k range and there’s just absolutely nothing in terms of inventory. Anything higher is just out of budget and every model I look for is trending in that price direction. I’m not in a rush to buy but I do worry that I’ll be priced out if I don’t act.
My biggest worry is that the abysmal new car inventories will start to affect the used car market, since you can’t have a used car without it have been being new at some point.
I live in Mexico, and I’m actually surprised that Mexico is in the top 10 export destinations. NAFTA made it very difficult to export a used US vehicle to Mexico. Very few vehicles qualify. The vehicle must have a NAFTA VIN (eliminates Japanese/Germana models made overseas vs the US), must be a specific number of years old (I think it’s either 8 or 9 years old, only), and it costs a couple thousand bucks for taxes and paperwork. For people retiring to Mexico it’s quite often cheaper and easier just to sell their US model in the US and buy a Mexican model in Mexico. It seems quite clear that in general Mexico does not want to be the dumping ground for used US cars.
I had hoped that the NAFTA replacement would have changed some of this, but I haven’t heard of any changes. I could be out of date.
I drive a chevy express van model that I believe was made in the US specifically for the Mexican market. It was used as a taxi for 6 years, and then sold on the used market, where I bought it. It’s a pretty basic model, manual windows for example (with the typically busted driver’s side knob).
There are plants in Mexico making models for both US and Mexico, and plants in the US making models for both countries. I don’t know if those are contributing to your ‘used’ numbers. But as you say in the article, when a plant makes models for specific markets, the models are customized for that market with different options.
For higher-end drivers, like SUVs, there are fewer Mexican models than are available in the US. You can still get all the bells and whistles, but you have less flexibility on option combinations and perhaps fewer colors to choose from. Often its white, silver, black or red only.
Sorry, I was using the word “model” in my post and what I really should have been using was the term “trim level”. Pretty much all the same models are available, but in fewer trim levels.
Proofreading comment: there’s an extra “vehicles” in operation in the first sentence:
“The number of vehicles of highway-legal light-duty vehicles in operation (VIO)”
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#Phoenix builder: “The positive is there’s light at the end of the tunnel for improving build cycle times. The negative is there won’t be customers on the other side of said tunnel.”
Recklessly late, it hiked a lot faster than forecasters even imagined a few months ago: 125 basis points in two meetings and promising more.
Mortgage volume collapsed. And the stocks of the biggest mortgage lenders collapsed after IPO or SPAC merger.
“Housing market is pulling back as anticipated, following unsustainable growth during the pandemic.”
In terms of diversification between stocks and bonds, there is none. Not anymore. They even nailed the bear market rally in lockstep.
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